Monday, October 29, 2007

Adjusted Plus-Minus Scores

82games.com's Steve Ilardi unveils adjusted plus-minus scores for the 2006-07 season.

"This is exactly what the adjusted plus-minus stat does: it reflects the impact of each player on his team's bottom line (scoring margin), after controlling statistically for the strength of every teammate and every opponent during each minute he's on the court."
That's just a very small part of the explanation, so it's worth reading some of the details. For instance, the 2005-06 season is given some weight and last year's playoffs were doubly weighted.

Michael Redd is ranked 20th among players who played at least 20 minutes per game out of 175 qualified players.

Others of note:

63/175. Andrew Bogut
115/175. Charlie Bell
124/175. Mo Williams
170/175. Desmond Mason

And some from the under-20 minute group:

16/167. Charlie Villanueva
66/167. Jake Voskuhl
82/167. Dan Gadzuric
163/167. David Noel

There are noted error margins which Ilardi goes into detail about and might help explain some of the more questionable ratings, such as:

17/175. Rajon Rondo
30/175. Brad Miller
41/175. Tim Thomas
80/175. Carmelo Anthony
150/175. Richard Jefferson

Like all mathematical statistical measurements, this one doesn't quite answer definitively questions about player rankings, despite what Ilardi says. Adjusted plus-minus ratings are however another valuable tool that one can use in player comparisons.

In considering the Bucks' ratings, one that jumps out right away is Mason's, who also had a low, -4.9 Roland Rating last year. Perhaps more surprising is Williams' low rating, which contrats his solid 1.4 Roland Rating.

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